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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
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0 (0 bps)
$9,549,155 Vol.
98%
1 (25 bps)
$3,731,848 Vol.
<1%
2 (50 bps)
$3,557,290 Vol.
<1%
3 (75 bps)
$3,030,337 Vol.
<1%
4 (100 bps)
$2,832,348 Vol.
<1%
5 (125 bps)
$3,076,410 Vol.
<1%
6 (150 bps)
$4,251,444 Vol.
<1%
7 (175 bps)
$3,540,600 Vol.
<1%
8 (200 bps)
$3,323,596 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 bps)
$4,325,517 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 bps)
$4,991,767 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$5,331,591 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$4,183,394 Vol.
<1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the spe... This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market Opened: Sep 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm- No recent trades