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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
$51,089,611 Vol.Dec 31, 2026PolyBet
November 7
$2,007,508 Vol.
>99%
November 11
$24,459 Vol.
99%
November 13
$4,834 Vol.
98%
November 15
$2,203,372 Vol.
96%
3%
November 18
$3,700 Vol.
93%
November 20
$21,886 Vol.
92%
November 22
$441,089 Vol.
91%
6%
November 30
$1,295,555 Vol.
86%
7%
December 15
$508,945 Vol.
79%
9%
December 31
$2,318,321 Vol.
69%
8%
July 18
$245,773 Vol.
100%
July 20
$351,226 Vol.
100%
July 22
$953,284 Vol.
100%
July 23
$279,287 Vol.
100%
July 24
$772,687 Vol.
100%
July 25
$2,652,892 Vol.
100%
July 26
$1,140,801 Vol.
100%
July 27
$538,714 Vol.
100%
July 28
$392,797 Vol.
100%
July 29
$648,413 Vol.
100%
July 30
$553,197 Vol.
100%
July 31
$3,394,418 Vol.
100%
August 1
$1,393,397 Vol.
100%
August 2
$2,959,161 Vol.
100%
August 3
$1,143,345 Vol.
100%
August 4
$861,735 Vol.
100%
August 9
$2,357,475 Vol.
100%
August 15
$2,534,770 Vol.
100%
August 31
$3,333,311 Vol.
100%
September 15
$163,166 Vol.
100%
1%
September 30
$3,337,162 Vol.
100%
1%
October 9
$60,056 Vol.
100%
1%
October 15
$955,125 Vol.
100%
2%
October 18
$804,811 Vol.
100%
2%
October 21
$1,471,893 Vol.
100%
1%
October 24
$294,378 Vol.
100%
October 27
$511,127 Vol.
100%
October 29
$5,268 Vol.
100%
October 30
$52,886 Vol.
100%
October 31
$4,439,450 Vol.
100%
1%
November 1
$240,786 Vol.
100%
November 2
$508,026 Vol.
100%
November 3
$614,188 Vol.
100%
November 4
$674,226 Vol.
100%
November 5
$740,702 Vol.
100%
November 6
$880,012 Vol.
100%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, ini... This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
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