← Markets
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
$51,328,569 Vol.Dec 31, 2026PolyBet
November 15
$2,207,487 Vol.
5%
5%
November 30
$2,615,128 Vol.
17%
7%
December 15
$4,762 Vol.
27%
December 31
$5,994,613 Vol.
38%
3%
March 31
$443,725 Vol.
69%
1%
July 14
$43,360 Vol.
0%
1%
July 24
$351,769 Vol.
0%
2%
July 31
$1,106,597 Vol.
0%
1%
August 7
$2,973,355 Vol.
0%
13%
August 8
$417,212 Vol.
0%
10%
August 9
$697,453 Vol.
0%
5%
August 10
$543,176 Vol.
0%
1%
August 11
$607,660 Vol.
0%
1%
August 12
$490,308 Vol.
0%
1%
August 13
$404,258 Vol.
0%
1%
August 14
$495,637 Vol.
0%
1%
August 15
$3,291,961 Vol.
0%
1%
August 22
$1,478,692 Vol.
0%
August 31
$4,936,928 Vol.
0%
September 7
$1,780,252 Vol.
0%
1%
September 14
$1,759,863 Vol.
0%
September 21
$1,462,592 Vol.
0%
1%
September 30
$5,588,313 Vol.
0%
1%
October 15
$3,669,357 Vol.
0%
October 31
$6,991,042 Vol.
0%
3%
November 2
$973,069 Vol.
0%
2%
Rules
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.... On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
- No recent trades