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Trump predictions & odds

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase

87%

Yes87%No14%

No change

9%

Yes9%No92%

$20M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31

69%

Yes69%No32%

December 31

38%

Yes38%No62%

$51M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

9%

chance

Yes

No

$79M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 2026

39%

Yes39%No62%

November 30, 2026

20%

Yes20%No80%

$2M Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 31

34%

Yes34%No67%

November 30

17%

Yes17%No84%

$4M Vol.

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Chuck Schumer

91%

Yes91%No10%

Chris Van Hollen

8%

Yes8%No92%

$650K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

34%

chance

Yes

No

$2M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

March 31

14%

Yes14%No86%

January 31

14%

Yes14%No86%

$1M Vol.

Fed Decision in January?

No change

72%

Yes72%No28%

25 bps increase

26%

Yes26%No75%

$1M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$15M Vol.

Jensen Huang divorce by...?

March 31, 2027

18%

Yes18%No83%

December 31, 2026

10%

Yes10%No91%

$222K Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$25M Vol.

Next Press Secretary?

Anna Kelly

14%

Yes14%No86%

Donald Trump

8%

Yes8%No93%

$784K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 2027

70%

Yes70%No31%

November 30, 2027

68%

Yes68%No32%

$11M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro

93%

Yes93%No7%

Delcy Rodríguez

7%

Yes7%No94%

$100M Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China

92%

Yes92%No9%

No meeting by December 31

8%

Yes8%No92%

$2M Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 31

61%

Yes61%No40%

Qatar

24%

Yes24%No76%

$322K Vol.

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Pete Hegseth

28%

Yes28%No72%

Howard Lutnick

24%

Yes24%No77%

$2M Vol.