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Iran Ceasefire predictions & odds

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31

69%

Yes69%No32%

December 31

38%

Yes38%No62%

$51M Vol.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

November 7

100%

Yes100%No<1%

November 11

99%

Yes99%No1%

$51M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

10%

chance

Yes

No

$18M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 31

13%

Yes13%No88%

November 30

4%

Yes4%No96%

$22M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 2026

39%

Yes39%No62%

November 30, 2026

20%

Yes20%No80%

$2M Vol.

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

December 31

81%

Yes81%No20%

November 30

65%

Yes65%No36%

$639K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$2M Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 31

3%

Yes3%No97%

$77M Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 31

23%

Yes23%No78%

November 30

8%

Yes8%No93%

$999K Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 31

61%

Yes61%No40%

Qatar

24%

Yes24%No76%

$322K Vol.